Prediction of Christopher Li vs Valerio Aboian at M15 Lima 12 Dec 2025

• Recent second serve performance shows Christopher Li narrowly leads with 44.62% of points won, slightly higher than Valerio Aboian's 44.60%. Does this negligible difference significantly influence match outcomes? It often correlates with accurate predictions.
• In their return game, Christopher Li excels by winning 52.20% of opponents' second serve points, compared to Valerio Aboian's 42.79%. This suggests an edge for Li in second serve returns.
• For first serve returns, Christopher Li achieves 32.56%, again surpassing Aboian's 29.33%, indicating Li's better return capabilities.
• Under pressure, while Aboian shows higher breakpoint-saving ability at 56.98% versus Li's 50.53%, this category could be pivotal in tight games.
• Over the past year, match performance indicates Aboian has a higher win rate of 62.75%, compared to Li's 55.00%—a factor that may tip the scales in Aboian's favor.
• Analyzing surface strengths, Li excels on Indoor Hard Courts with a win rate of 75%, while Aboian performs best on Clay with the same win rate, potentially affecting outcomes based on surface.
• Both players mainly compete in Futures/ITF $10K level events, but Aboian holds a better win percentage at 70.00%, compared to Li's 61.11%.
• A glance at opponent quality reveals Li has faced slightly more challenging opponents, averaging a rank of 107.9 versus Aboian's 123.1, possibly indicating experience under higher pressure.
• In deciding sets, Aboian doubles Li's success rate, winning 50% compared to Li's 25%, which could prove crucial if the match goes the distance.
• Both players show similar breakpoint conversion rates, with Li at 35.43% and Aboian at 33.33%, providing insights into critical game moments.

Editorial Prediction (December 12, 2025, UTC):

With nearly indistinguishable second serve performance, Christopher Li and Valerio Aboian seem closely matched initially. However, Li's better performance in returning both first and second serves provides him a slight competitive edge.

Although Aboian saves break points more effectively and has a higher overall win rate in the past year, the quality of opponents faced by Li could mean he is better prepared for high-stakes matches. Li's superior performance on hard surfaces aligns with his recent form, making surface selection potentially crucial.

The deciding set performance heavily favors Aboian, suggesting his resilience in tight match situations. Ultimately, this match will likely be closely contested.

Considering all statistical aspects, Valerio Aboian is the slight favorite for the upcoming match, largely due to his superior overall win rate and ability to perform under pressure in deciding sets.